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{"id":1023,"date":"2011-09-30T13:55:40","date_gmt":"2011-09-30T18:55:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/projectprofessionals.org\/?p=1023"},"modified":"2011-09-30T13:55:40","modified_gmt":"2011-09-30T18:55:40","slug":"managing-risk-of-delay-%e2%80%93-forecasting-and-management-part-12","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/projectprofessionals.org\/2011\/09\/30\/managing-risk-of-delay-%e2%80%93-forecasting-and-management-part-12\/","title":{"rendered":"MANAGING RISK OF DELAY \u2013 Forecasting and Management (Part 12)"},"content":{"rendered":"

This post is the twelfth in a series<\/a><\/strong> of discussions regarding various aspects of time management<\/strong> as it relates to the risk of delay<\/strong>.\u00a0 This post addresses the managerial aspects of forecasting related to time management.<\/p>\n

Planning for and implementing (time-related as opposed to cost-related) forecasting is, perhaps, one of the most important aspects of Time Management and, consequently, Managing Risk of Delay<\/strong>.\u00a0 As with progress assessment, timely (early) detection of trends (positive and negative) allows timely managerial action.\u00a0 Timeliness of action has a heavy influence over the effectiveness of Time Management<\/strong>.\u00a0 In project work, it is imperative that one finds problems quickly and fixes these problems rapidly.\u00a0 In order to implement timely action, professional and realistic time forecasting is required.<\/p>\n

The challenge associated with managing time is intensified in the case of larger and more complex projects as well as fast-track and high technology projects.<\/p>\n

In order to professionally manage time (and, therefore, risk of delay) the manager must have a time baseline [typically a Critical Path Method schedule<\/strong> and a Performance Measurement Baseline<\/strong> \u2013 please see earlier posts<\/a> on these topics] and a method to recognize variations from the baseline.\u00a0 In order to detect variances, the managerial team must have an effective process to update the schedule (or time model) including a meaningful forecast of anticipated future performance.<\/p>\n

As a project\/construction\/contracts\/business manager and similar, it is imperative that you define your project execution approach as it relates to schedule updates and time-related forecasting.\u00a0 The \u201cwater-shed\u201d or uses of the information are enormous.<\/p>\n

Use of forecasts for crafting a \u201cpolitically correct\u201d message can be counterproductive.\u00a0 Further, it diminishes the value of this important managerial tool.<\/p>\n

In this discussion, I will use two key references:<\/p>\n