This post is the twelfth in a series<\/a><\/strong> of discussions regarding various aspects of time management<\/strong> as it relates to the risk of delay<\/strong>.\u00a0 This post addresses the managerial aspects of forecasting related to time management.<\/p>\n Planning for and implementing (time-related as opposed to cost-related) forecasting is, perhaps, one of the most important aspects of Time Management and, consequently, Managing Risk of Delay<\/strong>.\u00a0 As with progress assessment, timely (early) detection of trends (positive and negative) allows timely managerial action.\u00a0 Timeliness of action has a heavy influence over the effectiveness of Time Management<\/strong>.\u00a0 In project work, it is imperative that one finds problems quickly and fixes these problems rapidly.\u00a0 In order to implement timely action, professional and realistic time forecasting is required.<\/p>\n The challenge associated with managing time is intensified in the case of larger and more complex projects as well as fast-track and high technology projects.<\/p>\n In order to professionally manage time (and, therefore, risk of delay) the manager must have a time baseline [typically a Critical Path Method schedule<\/strong> and a Performance Measurement Baseline<\/strong> \u2013 please see earlier posts<\/a> on these topics] and a method to recognize variations from the baseline.\u00a0 In order to detect variances, the managerial team must have an effective process to update the schedule (or time model) including a meaningful forecast of anticipated future performance.<\/p>\n As a project\/construction\/contracts\/business manager and similar, it is imperative that you define your project execution approach as it relates to schedule updates and time-related forecasting.\u00a0 The \u201cwater-shed\u201d or uses of the information are enormous.<\/p>\n Use of forecasts for crafting a \u201cpolitically correct\u201d message can be counterproductive.\u00a0 Further, it diminishes the value of this important managerial tool.<\/p>\n In this discussion, I will use two key references:<\/p>\n Under the heading As a Forecasting Tool<\/strong>, Murray Woolf observes and advises:<\/p>\n \u201cUsing the Execution Schedule as a forecasting tool to routinely predict project outcomes is very popular.\u00a0 Information derived from Execution Schedule Editions can be used to identify status and trends and then speculate on likely project completion or future work performance.\u201d [p28]<\/p><\/blockquote>\n The common and sophisticated method of forecasting time-related performance is through the use of CPM schedule updates.\u00a0 The popular planning and scheduling software packages are very powerful and many publications and forums provide sound advice regarding forecasting<\/strong>.\u00a0 Since the technical aspects of this subject are complicated, we will leave detailed discussion for a later post.<\/p>\n Updating and forecasting the critical and near-critical path work is a key managerial support function.\u00a0 It is imperative that it be done professionally and consistent with the Project Management Plan<\/strong>.<\/p>\n The PMI Practice Standard<\/a> covers SCHEDULE ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING<\/strong> in Chapter 3, pages 17-18. \u00a0The headings of this discussion are:<\/p>\n \u201cSchedule Variance (Are we ahead of behind schedule?)<\/em>\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cSchedule Performance Index (How efficiently are we using time?)<\/em>\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cTime Estimate at Completion (When are we likely to finish work)?<\/em>\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n Classic EVM <\/strong>uses cost as the resource for performance measurement.\u00a0 However, other resources (e.g. Contract Value, Planned Man-Hours, and Subcontract Value) can be better choices.\u00a0 This should be covered in the Project Management Plan<\/strong>.<\/p>\n Consider two simple examples:<\/p>\n In both cases, the forecast must consider prior performance and mitigation or recovery action may be indicated.<\/p>\n When M&M<\/a> undertakes an assignment involving program\/project development, planning and\/or management, we integrate both critical path time management<\/strong> and Earned Value Management<\/strong> practices and procedures into project execution<\/strong>.\u00a0 With this approach, the project management team can identify time management issues early and fix them quickly.\u00a0 Mitigation of progress issues or events requires timely recognition (and notice, if required).\u00a0 Recognition and notice are addressed in two prior posts<\/a>.<\/p>\n Good luck and let us all attempt to approach the issue of Time-Management strategy<\/strong> with all the factors in an integrated manner (critical path progress, bulk progress or EVM, and productivity) relative to other related aspects of program and project execution planning.\u00a0 In planning for these practices, consideration must be given to progress measurement, schedule updates, progress assessment and professional forecasts.<\/p>\n It is important to note that McLaughlin and McLaughlin [M&M]<\/a><\/strong> is not a law firm and is not intending to provide legal advice.\u00a0 M&M<\/a><\/strong> is a consulting firm providing (among other services) non-legal expertise in dispute resolution and litigation support.\u00a0 The Resource Center<\/a><\/strong> is for the convenience of blog visitors and M&M<\/a><\/strong> does not offer this for commercial purposes.\u00a0 For further information on M&M<\/strong> <\/a>services, please see<\/em> <\/em>www.McLaughlinandMcLaughlin.com<\/a><\/em><\/strong>.<\/em><\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n This post is the twelfth in a series of discussions regarding various aspects of time management as it relates to the risk of delay.\u00a0 This post addresses the managerial aspects of forecasting related to time management. Planning for and implementing (time-related as opposed to cost-related) forecasting is, perhaps, one of the most important aspects of […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1024,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_s2mail":"yes"},"categories":[9,49,16,8],"tags":[162,161,52,80,97,127,112,126,105,81,64,111,176,78,79],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/projectprofessionals.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/09\/MP910221032-2.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/projectprofessionals.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1023"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/projectprofessionals.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/projectprofessionals.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/projectprofessionals.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/projectprofessionals.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1023"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/projectprofessionals.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1023\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1028,"href":"https:\/\/projectprofessionals.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1023\/revisions\/1028"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/projectprofessionals.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1024"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/projectprofessionals.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1023"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/projectprofessionals.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1023"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/projectprofessionals.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1023"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}\n
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